Can Ron Paul Win GOP Nomination in a Field Full of Fringe Candidates?
Tipping his hand on Fox News Monday night, Texas Congressman Ron Paul told Sean Hannity’s well-manicured hair that he will form a presidential exploratory committee, which he announced today at a speaking stop in Des Moines, Iowa.
That committee formation step is usually code for “someone is going to run,” however CNN quotes sources close to Paul as saying that he is still not 100 percent sure and will make a final decision in mid-May. The move comes as most of the potential Republican presidential field is starting to bump up against their own deadlines for decisions.
This will mark Paul’s third foray into the presidential arena. The first time was back in 1988, when he won the Libertarian party’s nomination for president and ran against George H.W. Bush and Michael Dukakis. He finished third overall in the popular vote, though since this only represented around a half of a percent of the total votes cast, it’s not quite as impressive as it sounds.
His second run was entirely more memorable: In 2008, he tried and failed to win the Republican nomination for president. While he received very little traditional support during the campaign, Paul had a huge grassroots movement behind him. He was also able to pull in surprisingly large amounts of money, mostly through online organizing.
He went on to take 10 percent of the vote in Iowa, and 8 percent in New Hampshire. On Super Tuesday he pulled in percentages as high as 25 percent in some states. A poor showing across many other states, however, made it impossible to win, and he dropped out on March 6th of that year, recognizing John McCain as the presumptive nominee.
Ron Paul has been a darling of the original coalition of Tea Party members for his anti-taxation and small government views. You know, a true fiscal conservative. Last time around he was the only candidate in the GOP field speaking strongly to those particular issues. But it will be interesting to see how he fares now that there are several other well-known Tea Party candidates that may be running, not to mention fellow Libertarian, former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson.
Ron Paul’s son, Rand, became the junior senator from Kentucky this year. He had shown interest in running for president; however, he said he wouldn’t enter the race if his father was running.
It’s unclear how much a shot he has this time around. Most polls of the prospective GOP field have him in the single digits, trailing behind Mike Huckabee, Donald Trump, Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin and Newt Gingrich. Though it’s important to note that polls don’t mean a lot this early in the game.
As we said in our write-up of Johnson’s announcement, “This is perhaps the most interesting test case yet: Can Republicans and Tea Party members put aside their differences on issues like immigration and drugs to nominate the man whose proven legislative record is most similar to everything they’ve been saying for two years?” The same certainly holds true for Ron Paul’s candidacy.
The Republican field is emerging as a minefield of competing interests that candidates have to wade through to get the nomination. With people like Michele Bachmann, Trump and Palin potentially throwing their hats in the ring, there will certainly be no lack of extreme viewpoints to be expressed. In this kind of political climate, does Ron Paul have more of a chance? Or will he be simply another member of the vocal minority who is ultimately swept away by a more “mainstream” establishment candidate?
Tell us what you think below.
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